US President Donald Trump faces a choice between several damaging scenarios as he searches for a way to settle the conflict with Iran, according to The Economist. The magazine argues that the White House has no clear path out of the crisis that would avoid major political and economic costs.
Washington recently offered Tehran a sweeping agreement. Under the proposal, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear ambitions in exchange for hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. The financial incentives, however, failed to persuade the Iranian leadership to accept the US terms.
A memorandum of understanding signed a month ago was supposed to deliver peace within two months. Instead, it became another source of disagreement. Tehran views the document as confirming its right to control the strait, while Washington interprets it as a commitment not to obstruct international shipping.
With the two sides unable to agree, military escalation has resumed. Oil tankers are avoiding routes through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices are rising, and negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program remain deadlocked.
The article said Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, either supports a strategy aimed at extracting maximum concessions from Washington or depends on forces that want the war to continue.
According to The Economist, Trump has yet to develop a coherent strategy. Several days ago, he proposed imposing a 20 percent tariff on ships passing through the strait, only to abandon the idea soon afterward.
Threats to destroy Iranian facilities offer no guaranteed solution either. Earlier bombing campaigns intended to weaken and overthrow the Iranian government instead united its supporters. The magazine described a possible seizure of Khark Island as particularly dangerous, since US troops deployed there could become easy targets for Iranian missiles and drones.
Making concessions to Tehran would also be unacceptable, the publication argued. Such a move would leave US allies without protection and signal weakness in Washington.
That leaves the White House trying to demonstrate that it is prepared to maintain the blockade of Iranian exports, despite the risk of higher gasoline prices ahead of the November Senate elections. The Economist concluded that Trump has almost no room left to retreat and that continued military action is becoming the only realistic course available to him.
On the evening of July 15, the US military announced a new series of strikes against Iran after receiving an order from Trump. US Central Command said the operation targeted Iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessels traveling freely through the Strait of Hormuz, a major international waterway vital to global trade.
Iran responded by attacking US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the ninth phase of Operation Molniya targeted an air defense radar station at a military base in Kuwait, as well as areas where US forces were stationed.
Iranian forces also struck US military communications systems and fuel storage facilities in Jordan.
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