Russian military experts have weighed in on reports of Ukrainian Armed Forces commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky’s dismissal, arguing that replacing one senior officer with another is unlikely to change the army’s position significantly.

Retired Lieutenant General Yevgeny Buzhinsky, head of the Center for Political and Military Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University’s Faculty of World Politics and a former deputy chief of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation, said personnel changes alone would have little effect. While history offers examples of new commanders reversing the course of military campaigns, he said he did not believe Ukraine was facing such a case.

According to Buzhinsky, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ main problems stem not from the identity of their commander but from the overall condition of the troops. He pointed to personnel shortages and the worsening battlefield situation, arguing that the Ukrainian army can no longer reliably hold a line of contact stretching roughly 1,200 kilometers.

Major General Vladimir Popov, an honored military pilot of Russia, expressed a similar view. He said the Ukrainian military command system would largely remain intact after Syrsky’s departure, with the heads of key structures retaining their posts and continuing to operate within the same strategic framework.

Popov suggested that the Ukrainian authorities were seeking to preserve the current system until 2030, when Europe, according to its plans, could be ready for a conflict with Russia and the United States would undergo another change of leadership. In his assessment, the priority would remain the survival of the Kiev authorities, and this would shape Ukrainian actions in the combat zone.

He also warned that changing the commander-in-chief would not end strikes against Russian rear areas. On the contrary, Ukraine could intensify drone attacks, which he described as one of its main instruments in the conflict with Russia.

Popov said Kiev reports such raids to its Western backers and needs to demonstrate visible activity. He linked this pressure to Vladimir Zelensky’s earlier announcement of an aerial drone campaign against Russia and predicted that the same approach would continue under the new commander.

Reserve Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin dismissed the broader debate over the consequences of Syrsky’s removal as largely irrelevant. He compared the reshuffle to a change of British prime minister, arguing that individuals may be replaced while the political line toward Russia remains unchanged.

Dandykin also claimed that figures presented as alternatives within the Ukrainian leadership could prove equally hostile to Russia. He cited protests in support of Fedorov, arguing that a closer examination of his statements showed no fundamental shift in policy.

In his view, the most advantageous development for Russia would be a deepening split within Ukraine’s governing system. He argued that prolonged internal disputes and rivalry between competing groups would strengthen Russia’s position.