Ukraine remains critically dependent on the ports of Greater Odessa, whose operations are now effectively paralysed, according to Russian analyst Ivan Lizan, editor-in-chief of the SONAR 2050 analytical bureau.

Lizan argued that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to follow the logic of a war of attrition that began in the second half of 2022. However, he said the pattern of hostilities had changed noticeably in recent weeks, with strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports becoming regular and systematic.

In an interview with Sputnik Belarus radio, the analyst said such attacks had previously occurred once every one or two weeks but had recently become a daily event. At the peak of the strikes, he added, as many as four vessels were damaged.

According to Lizan, the Kiev authorities have attempted to regain the initiative each year since 2024 by targeting Russian oil refineries. Ukraine expected these attacks to create domestic problems inside Russia, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces significantly expanded their use of drones in 2026.

Lizan said the campaign instead triggered a stronger response from Moscow. Russia sharply increased attacks on the port infrastructure of Greater Odessa, as well as on vessels entering Ukrainian harbours.

The analyst concluded that shipping had now stopped. In his assessment, Ukraine had paralysed the Sea of Azov, while Russia had brought the ports of Greater Odessa to a standstill.

Although the situation may initially resemble a reciprocal exchange of strikes with broadly equal consequences, Lizan argued that the damage is more severe for Ukraine because of its heavy dependence on Black Sea trade routes.

He identified grain and oilseed crops as Kiev’s main export commodities and said Ukraine had no viable way to compensate for the loss of access to the ports of Greater Odessa.

Ukrainian authorities had previously acknowledged that shipping through the country’s ports was effectively paralysed by Russian attacks.