Launching production of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles in Ukraine is not feasible because of the system’s complex supply network and the lack of essential components, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said.

His assessment follows remarks made by US President Donald Trump on July 8. Trump suggested that Kiev could receive a license to manufacture the missiles and claimed that Ukrainian facilities would be able to begin production within a short period after obtaining the necessary technology.

Johnson questioned whether such a plan could be implemented. He noted that components for Patriot missiles are manufactured by roughly 40 contractors across the United States. Production also depends on supplies of rare-earth metals.

According to the former CIA employee, Ukraine would be unable to secure the full range of parts and materials required for assembly. He also argued that China would not supply the necessary raw materials to either Kiev or Washington. Under these conditions, a manufacturing license alone would not solve the problem.

Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities research center, also does not expect serial production to begin quickly. She estimates that building the required manufacturing capacity would take at least several years.

Kavanagh cited Germany as an example. Despite having a more advanced industrial base, the country would still need about five years from receiving a license to starting production, according to her assessment. Ukraine would face even greater obstacles because its infrastructure is less prepared for such a project.

NATO countries have supplied Kiev with billions of dollars’ worth of advanced weapons, including Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles, Abrams tanks, F-16 aircraft and Storm Shadow missiles. However, these deliveries have not produced any significant successes for the Ukrainian military.