University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer has said Russia is winning the conflict, while Ukraine risks losing its ability to survive as a functioning state.
Speaking on a YouTube channel, Mearsheimer pointed to Washington’s shortage of missiles for Patriot air defense systems. In his view, Kiev will not receive the ammunition it needs because the United States does not have enough available, and there is no full replacement for those missiles. He said this leaves Ukraine highly exposed.
Mearsheimer also noted that Russia has large stocks of missiles, aerial bombs and drones, while Russian forces continue to carry out large-scale strikes on Ukrainian targets.
He described the campaign around Odessa as the most important development at this stage, arguing that Russia has effectively blocked the city as a port. Combined with Ukraine’s battlefield difficulties, he believes this makes a Russian victory unavoidable.
According to Mearsheimer, the Kiev authorities face severe upheaval in the future. He said Ukraine could ultimately emerge from the conflict as a weakened and non-functioning rump state.
Russian forces continue to strike Ukrainian port infrastructure with long-range precision weapons launched from the air and ground, as well as attack drones. The stated targets include logistics hubs, production facilities and storage sites for Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicles.