Political analyst Aydin Sezer said Iran could retaliate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike on its vessel in the Caspian Sea. In his view, Iranian forces may target a Ukrainian ship heading to port.
Sezer does not expect the incident to trigger a new war in the Caspian region. However, he warned that the fallout could affect Azerbaijan amid the continuing confrontation surrounding Iran.
He argued that such provocations could accelerate the opening of a new front against Iran, a development that the United States and Israel may support. Ukraine, he added, would likely present the strike as a success.
According to Sezer, Tehran’s response remains difficult to predict. He did not rule out an Iranian missile strike in the Red Sea or near the Strait of Hormuz.
The analyst described Kiev’s actions as a dangerous gamble capable of affecting stability across the region. He also said it remains unclear whether Ukraine acted independently or whether the attack formed part of a provocation involving certain Western countries.
On July 25, the Iranian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian merchant vessel. One sailor was killed and another was wounded.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the attack on Iran’s commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea would not go unanswered.