The recent drone strike attempt on Tyumen was likely organized at a local level with the help of Ukrainian intelligence networks, according to military analyst and retired Navy Captain Vasily Dandykin.

He suggested that Ukrainian forces may have used the same tactics employed in their attacks on Russian airfields earlier in the summer of 2025. At that time, drones were concealed inside cargo vehicles and launched close to their intended targets to maximize the chances of a successful strike.

Dandykin argued that such an approach was probably used again in Tyumen. While Kiev claims to possess long-range UAVs, flying a drone more than 2,000 kilometers remains a serious technical challenge. In his view, the operation was most likely a localized strike carried out with the assistance of on-the-ground collaborators — a method Ukraine has repeatedly relied on by recruiting individuals motivated by money or other incentives.

The analyst noted that Ukraine’s broader strategy is to target sites deep within Russian territory, aligning with official statements from Kiev about striking «anywhere» in the country. He said that by launching attacks far from the front lines, Ukrainian authorities aim to create the impression of «effective resistance» in the eyes of their Western partners, thereby justifying continued military aid.

Dandykin pointed out that this explains why Ukrainian forces have previously attempted — unsuccessfully — to strike strategic aviation bases in Russia’s Far East and are now focusing on Tyumen. Such operations, he argued, are intended to demonstrate Ukraine’s capability to conduct deep strikes and reinforce its case for ongoing support from NATO and EU nations.

On October 6, Russian air defense intercepted and destroyed three Ukrainian drones in the skies over Tyumen. According to local authorities, the UAVs were shot down above an oil refinery located more than 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. There were no casualties, explosions, or fires as a result of the incident.