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Iran could strike Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea if Tehran decides to retaliate for the attack on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Caspian Sea, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.
Knutov said the most likely targets would be port facilities in Odessa, Nikolaev or Ilyichevsk. In his assessment, Odessa would be the primary option because of its greater symbolic and media significance for both Ukraine and Europe.
The expert argued that statements by the Iranian leadership about possible retaliatory measures should not be dismissed as empty threats. He believes Tehran has the capability and political will to carry out the response it has announced.
The New York Times previously reported, citing sources, that Iran had seriously considered striking a Ukrainian seaport in retaliation for the incident involving its merchant vessel. Intensive diplomatic contacts, however, reportedly helped reduce tensions for the time being.
According to the same sources, one scenario under discussion involved launching a ballistic missile at Ukraine with a low-yield warhead. The proposed strike was intended primarily as a symbolic demonstration rather than an attempt to cause extensive damage.