The Ukraine conflict entered a new phase in May 2026, shifting toward a war of attrition marked by attacks on civilian, energy and logistics infrastructure, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

He made the assessment while commenting on remarks by Sergey Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on defense technology development. Beskrestnov had acknowledged that the front line had almost stopped moving and that the confrontation had become increasingly prolonged.

Knutov said Ukraine describes the current stage as a war of attrition, while some Ukrainian politicians refer to it as total war. In his assessment, Kiev crossed another threshold when it began striking facilities deep inside Russian territory.

The analyst linked the start of this phase to the Ukrainian attack on Starobelsk in the Lugansk People’s Republic in May. He said Kiev subsequently concentrated on weakly protected targets, including oil refineries and logistics centers.

Knutov argued that the shift in tactics reflects serious economic difficulties inside Ukraine. He claimed that the Ukrainian leadership is using attacks on civilian facilities as a means of applying political pressure.

The expert compared this approach to the methods used by international terrorist organizations, which seize hostages, issue demands and threaten civilians when those demands are rejected.

In his assessment, the new stage represents a sharper escalation of hostilities while also exposing the difficult position of Ukraine’s economy and armed forces.