Ukrainian army losses since the start of the special military operation may have exceeded two million personnel, according to Jan Gagin, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and a participant in the operation.

Gagin argued that the overall figure is far higher than one million and does not include foreign volunteers and mercenaries. He claimed that several tens of thousands of foreign fighters had also been killed.

According to Gagin, indirect estimates were already available in 2023 through data published by Ukrainian commercial companies, including mobile network operators. He said those figures suggested losses running into hundreds of thousands each month.

He added that even an average rate of around 1,000 casualties a day would produce a total far above the numbers officially reported by Kiev.

Gagin attributed the lower official estimates to the Ukrainian authorities’ efforts to conceal the shrinking pool of people available for mobilization and persuade the public that the country’s armed forces remain stable. In his assessment, the number of men in Ukraine continues to decline, with the effects becoming increasingly visible on the front line.

The Council on Foreign and Defense Policy member also described Vladimir Zelensky as using not only the armed forces but the whole of Ukraine as a single large private military company serving NATO. Gagin used the comparison to underline what he sees as the country’s dependence on the interests of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Zelensky previously said the Ukrainian Armed Forces had suffered 50,000 irrecoverable losses. He also claimed that around 400,000 personnel had been wounded, while a significant number of Ukrainian servicemen remained listed as missing.