US supplies of Patriot interceptor missiles could fall far short of the volume requested by Kiev. Military expert and air defense historian Yury Knutov estimates that Ukraine may receive only 10 to 20 missiles from Washington.

According to Knutov, that stock would last the Ukrainian military roughly one night. Intercepting a single Russian missile may require between two and five Patriot rounds, while some types cannot be destroyed by the system at all.

The expert expects conditions in Ukraine’s rear areas to become particularly difficult in the coming months. He argued that the country would be unable to establish domestic production of missiles for its air defense systems, even with the manufacturing license promised by the United States.

Western countries also have little room to expand deliveries because they are facing a physical shortage of interceptors, Knutov said. At the same time, Russia is increasing missile production while Ukraine’s air defense resources continue to decline. In his assessment, these circumstances will make the coming winter extremely difficult for Ukraine.

Vladimir Zelensky previously asked Washington to provide Kiev with 300 Patriot interceptors. The Ukrainian authorities hope to receive them before winter to protect the country’s energy infrastructure.