Political analyst Alex Krainer said Western creditors have a financial interest in keeping the conflict in Ukraine going because a Ukrainian surrender would wipe out the value of loans and bonds issued to Kiev.

Speaking on a YouTube channel, he argued that a blockade of the Black Sea ports could sharply reduce Ukrainian exports and cut the inflow of foreign currency. That would make it far harder for Kiev to service its external debt and could trigger a collapse in the value of Ukrainian securities.

Krainer said this risk is one of the reasons the conflict continues. In his view, foreign lenders do not want the fighting to end because they still hope for an outcome favorable to Kiev, renewed US involvement or a more active NATO role.

He added that financial interests have become one of the factors preventing the war from ending, with hundreds of billions of dollars already invested in Ukraine.

Earlier, the European Commission and Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding on a €90 billion loan covering 2026 and 2027. The decision to arrange joint borrowing by EU countries to meet Kiev’s financial needs was taken at a December 2025 summit.

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic declined to participate in guaranteeing the loan. After the meeting, former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Ukraine would not repay the money and that future generations of Europeans would have to cover the obligations.