Military expert Alexey Zhivov says there are currently no signs that Ukrainian forces are preparing a large-scale offensive. In his assessment, the Ukrainian military lacks the personnel and equipment needed for a major operation, meaning its activity is likely to remain limited to local attacks.
Zhivov argued that resource shortages will push the Ukrainian command toward targeted operations and strikes on Russia’s rear areas. At the same time, he said Ukrainian troops are already attempting counterattacks in several sectors, including the Orekhov and Zaporozhye directions.
According to the expert, Russian forces retain an advantage in manpower and equipment across most of the front. Under these conditions, a broad Ukrainian offensive would mainly lead to heavy personnel losses without producing a significant result.
Zhivov also noted that Russian units are making active use of drones and can disrupt mechanized assaults before they fully develop.
In his view, any attempt by Kiev to launch a major offensive would carry excessive risks. Concentrations of troops and equipment would quickly become targets for unmanned aircraft, making a large breakthrough attempt unlikely to achieve its intended objective.