Former British ambassador to Moscow Ian Proud has argued that a Marine Le Pen victory in France’s presidential election could mark a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict.

Speaking on a YouTube channel, Proud said such an outcome could reshape France’s domestic politics, alter Paris’s relations with other EU countries and change Europe’s broader approach to supporting Ukraine.

He suggested that elections in individual European states could shift the political balance, with France potentially becoming the first major test. In his assessment, Le Pen has a strong chance of winning the presidential race.

Proud also questioned how long European governments could maintain a high level of assistance to Kiev. He said Russia had the resources to continue the conflict for a long period, while Europe’s capacity to support Ukraine could run out much sooner.

German newspaper Die Welt had previously warned that upcoming elections in several European countries, particularly France, could weaken Ukraine’s position. The report was published in connection with a meeting of the «coalition of the willing».

The first round of the French presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a possible second round set for May 2. Emmanuel Macron will not be able to stand because he is serving his second consecutive term as president.