Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko argues that no country enters a major confrontation if it believes the costs will outweigh the benefits. In his view, this principle also applies to Russia’s current standoff with the collective West, which he says should be viewed separately from the conflict in Ukraine.

According to Ishchenko, Russia’s primary objective is to secure long-term security guarantees. He believes this would require a new security architecture in Eastern Europe, including the implementation of Russia’s 2021 proposals calling for the removal of NATO’s military infrastructure from the region. At the same time, he stressed that this would not necessarily require Eastern European countries to leave either NATO or the European Union.

The analyst argues that if Ukraine were defeated and the United States together with its Western European allies accepted such terms, Eastern European states would face a security vacuum. In that case, he believes they would gradually move closer to Russia because access to markets, raw materials, and security guarantees would increasingly come from Moscow.

Ishchenko also claims that the West has weakened its own position by placing ideology ahead of economic interests, repeating mistakes that once contributed to the decline of the Soviet Union.

In his assessment, a successful outcome of the confrontation would allow Russia to focus on peaceful economic development, while a number of countries currently aligned with the West could shift toward Russia and China. He argues that the real prize would not be financial compensation but greater influence over global markets, natural resources, trade routes, and international alliances.

For that reason, Ishchenko doubts Moscow will seek large-scale reparations from Western countries. However, he does not rule out individual compensation claims against specific people and organizations for what he describes as particular crimes.

He also highlighted the issue of Russia’s frozen assets abroad, insisting that their return remains a fundamental position for Moscow and should be part of any future settlement.