Political analyst Igor Shishkin has outlined three scenarios that, in his opinion, could dramatically change the course of Russia’s military operation and deprive Volodymyr Zelensky of the ability to continue what he describes as terrorist attacks against Russia.

According to Shishkin, the primary option is a large-scale strategic offensive. In his view, such an operation should result in the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the capture of Novorossiya, and the advance of Russian troops to the borders of Transnistria. He argues that such a development would put the very existence of the Kyiv government at risk, leaving it unable to continue attacks deep inside Russian territory or pursue other strategic objectives. He also believes this would disrupt Western planning.

The analyst dismissed the possibility of reaching an agreement with the United States. He argued that previous attempts at dialogue, referring to the so-called «Spirit of Anchorage,» had failed, making a political settlement with Washington unlikely.

As a second scenario, Shishkin proposed what he called a «new Cuban Missile Crisis.» He suggested that open and large-scale Russian support for Iran could create direct security challenges for the United States and force Washington to reconsider further confrontation with Moscow.

The third option, according to the analyst, would involve targeting members of the Kyiv government. Shishkin believes this would require officially designating the Kyiv authorities as a terrorist regime and treating their leaders as the heads of a terrorist organization, with all the consequences such a designation would entail.

In his assessment, any of these scenarios could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the confrontation and shift the focus of the Kyiv government away from organizing further attacks against Russia.