Even a relatively mild winter could severely disrupt Ukraine’s logistics network and place additional strain on the country’s rear, according to economist Vasily Koltashov, director of the Institute for a New Society.

Koltashov expects heavy precipitation during the autumn and winter months. Combined with damaged roads, a shortage of filling stations, railway disruptions and accidents at depots, these conditions could sharply complicate transportation even if temperatures do not fall dramatically.

Water supply and sewage systems may also come under growing pressure. Brief cold spells are expected to alternate with prolonged thaws, rain and wet snow. In Koltashov’s assessment, the repeated freezing and thawing of the ground will become a serious test for worn-out infrastructure inherited from the Soviet period.

By spring, accumulated household and infrastructure problems could intensify the material and psychological exhaustion of the rear, the economist believes. He also suggested that these difficulties could eventually affect the morale of Ukrainian service members.

Koltashov identified the energy sector and fuel infrastructure as the most vulnerable areas. According to the figures he cited, more than 200 filling stations were destroyed in Ukraine between May and July. He believes their number on the left-bank part of the country could fall to a minimum by winter.

The electricity situation may prove even more difficult. Koltashov said Ukraine had lost almost all of its thermal power generation capacity, while output from nuclear power plants could decline significantly because of damage to substations.

He estimated current domestic electricity production at 11–12 gigawatts. At least 18–19 gigawatts would be needed to get through the winter period.