Japan’s Defence Ministry has warned that China could expand its stockpile of fully operational nuclear warheads to more than 1,000 by 2030.
The projection appears in Japan’s 2026 Defence White Paper, which says Beijing is rapidly modernising and enlarging its nuclear forces. China is increasing warhead production while developing land-, sea- and air-based delivery systems. Its arsenal was estimated at just over 600 warheads in 2024, but could surpass 1,000 by the end of the decade.
According to the report, China is strengthening every part of its nuclear triad. Work is continuing on silo-based launch sites for intercontinental ballistic missiles, the number of mobile missile systems is growing, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are being upgraded.
Japanese analysts also highlighted the JL-3 missile, which is being deployed on China’s new-generation nuclear-powered submarines. The report puts its range at up to 10,000 kilometres, allowing China to strike targets in the United States while remaining in its own coastal waters.
Tokyo now plans to expand Japan’s military capabilities in response to what it describes as growing threats from China, as well as Russia and North Korea. The government links higher defence spending to shifts in the strategic environment and lessons from modern conflicts, including the fighting in Ukraine.
The authors of the white paper argue that the international community has entered a new era of crises.