Political analyst Andrei Kortunov believes Moscow and Kiev could return to discussions on humanitarian issues as early as this autumn. Technical contacts concerning prisoner exchanges are also expected to continue in the near term.

He said it remains impossible to predict the course of any broader diplomatic engagement with confidence. Kortunov nevertheless expects the sides to pass through another phase of escalation as they try to strengthen their positions ahead of possible future talks.

According to the analyst, Ukraine is increasing the intensity of strikes on targets deep inside Russian territory. Russia, meanwhile, is stepping up pressure on Ukrainian transport infrastructure and restricting the use of logistical routes, including maritime corridors.

Kortunov said talks could gain fresh momentum in autumn or winter, although they would most likely remain technical. Possible subjects could include exchanges of prisoners of war, the return of bodies and other humanitarian matters.

He added that contacts between Moscow and Kiev are likely to continue, but warned against expecting them to produce a major shift in the course of the conflict.

On July 22, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Kiev was well aware of the conditions required for serious negotiations. He added that the fighting could end very quickly once those conditions were met.