Retired U. S. Army Major Stanislav Krapivnik believes Iran will not accept Ukraine’s public apology following the drone strike on a civilian Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. He argues that Tehran is unlikely to view the incident as an accident and expects a response that could go beyond a proportional retaliation.

According to Krapivnik, the attack was carried out deliberately, making a diplomatic apology insufficient to resolve the situation. In his opinion, Iran has a history of responding forcefully to such incidents and may choose to escalate rather than simply mirror the original action.

The former U.S. military officer also claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not have conducted such a long-range drone operation without intelligence support from either the United States or the United Kingdom. He argues that Ukraine lacks the independent capability to guide drones to targets in the Caspian region and therefore relies on Western intelligence for targeting information.

Krapivnik further stated that Ukrainian forces depend on U.S. or British reconnaissance even for operations in parts of the Black Sea, suggesting that the strike on the Iranian vessel was enabled by external intelligence support.

He also questioned why Russia has not yet begun intercepting American reconnaissance drones operating over the Black Sea. In his view, such measures should eventually be extended to manned surveillance aircraft that collect intelligence and provide targeting data.

As an example, Krapivnik pointed to Iran, arguing that Tehran has long taken similar action against foreign reconnaissance activity. He praised what he described as Iran’s willingness to respond decisively.