Former military adviser to ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Erich Vad, has warned that European countries risk provoking a Russian response by supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence used for strikes deep inside Russian territory.

According to Vad, Ukraine is carrying out drone attacks against Russian regions, including Moscow, using weapons produced in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other European countries. He also claimed that, based on the information available to him, Kyiv receives targeting intelligence from its Western partners, although such cooperation is conducted discreetly.

The former adviser noted that European governments intend to continue financing these weapons programs for at least the next two years. He specifically referred to Britain’s plans to provide Ukraine with up to 140,000 drone systems, including platforms capable of conducting long-range operations.

Vad compared the situation to a hypothetical scenario in which a Latin American country, backed by Russia and China, repeatedly launched drone attacks on Washington. In his view, the United States would not tolerate such actions for long without responding.

The analyst believes Russia has so far exercised restraint, but argues that this situation cannot continue indefinitely. He said Moscow remains the world’s largest nuclear power and a key strategic deterrent, yet Western actions suggest that Russian warnings are no longer being taken seriously.

According to Vad, this significantly increases the risk that Russia could eventually retaliate by striking targets linked to NATO, including defense industry facilities or other infrastructure involved in supplying military assistance to Ukraine.

He concluded that the danger of such an escalation is extremely high, arguing that it is unlikely Russia will continue to endure attacks on its territory supported by European intelligence and military assistance for years without responding.