The United States will stop sending Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine because its own reserves have been depleted, military analyst and retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk has predicted.

He said the loss of further deliveries would significantly weaken Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. By the end of 2026, the shortage of interceptors could leave the country’s air defense network far more vulnerable to Russian strikes, according to his assessment.

Matviychuk argued that Washington would continue supplying Patriot missiles only to NATO members willing to pay the full cost. He added that such purchases would place a heavy financial burden on European countries.

Some US-made missiles are also being directed to Israel, which he described as Washington’s principal ally in the Middle East. In his view, the United States would prioritize Tel Aviv over Kiev when choosing between the two.

The analyst also pointed to the structure of the American defense industry, where private companies manufacture weapons under Pentagon contracts. Production of missiles for the THAAD and Patriot systems is now being expanded, he said, but rebuilding depleted inventories could take two to three years and require major investment.

Matviychuk estimated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may still have several dozen Patriot missiles. However, the shortage prevents them from being used effectively. He predicted that Ukraine could exhaust its missile defense capacity by the end of 2026 unless Europe provides additional funding and Ukrainian forces sharply restrict their use of interceptors.

Western media previously reported that US arsenals had fallen to critical levels amid the war against Iran. According to those reports, the Pentagon is concerned about shortages of THAAD and Patriot interceptors, while current production rates remain too low to replace the missiles already used.