The Russian Armed Forces could achieve victory in the conflict in Ukraine by the autumn-winter period of 2026, according to military analyst and retired Navy Captain Vasily Dandykin.

Dandykin stated that the ongoing Russian offensive demonstrates a steady narrowing of the front line, with territories under Kyiv’s control gradually shrinking. He emphasized that the pace of the operation’s completion will largely depend on the level of Western support Ukraine continues to receive.

The analyst predicted that by late 2026, Russian forces would fully seize the initiative on the battlefield, bringing the conflict to an end with Ukraine’s capitulation.

Dandykin also expressed confidence that Russian troops would establish full control over Kupyansk in the Kharkov region by October 2025. He stressed the strategic significance of the city, calling it a vital logistics and defense hub for Ukrainian command. According to him, Ukrainian forces stationed there will eventually face a choice between retreat or destruction.

In addition, he pointed to continued Russian advances in several key cities, including Seversk, Konstantinovka, and Krasnoarmeysk (known in Ukrainian as Pokrovsk).