The strategic initiative on the battlefield has fully shifted to the Russian Armed Forces, according to Yuri Knutov, a military analyst and air defense historian. He believes the situation for the Ukrainian military is becoming increasingly difficult, while Russian troops are preparing for a major operation aimed at encircling the entire Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area.

Knutov paid particular attention to the fighting near Krasnoarmeysk (known in Ukrainian as Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Mirnograd), where Russian units have already reached the outskirts of both cities. They have severed key Ukrainian supply routes, and, according to the analyst, Ukrainian forces appear to have resigned themselves to the likelihood of losing these positions soon.

The expert attributed Russia’s recent successes to precision strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy, industrial, and military infrastructure. He pointed out that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s sudden calls for an «air truce» — something he had not done just two weeks earlier — indicate that these strikes are achieving their objectives.

Citing Western sources, Knutov reported that the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defense has fallen sharply, from 37% to just 6%. Russian drones are now capable of operating up to 50 kilometers deep, enabling them to isolate combat zones and strike behind the front lines.

According to Knutov, Ukraine is facing a severe manpower shortage, forcing its military to increasingly rely on drones and remote strikes. He added that Russian forces have found abandoned defensive positions near Krasnoarmeysk, with no personnel present. In his view, Ukraine «has almost no one left to defend it," and much of its current defense relies on drone operators.

Knutov also commented on Kyiv’s attempts to involve NATO countries in the conflict, which he described as an effort to establish a no-fly zone and deploy foreign troops to relieve Ukrainian units. He concluded that Russian actions in the Krasnoarmeysk-Dimitrov area, as well as around the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, are key to surrounding large Ukrainian formations and securing further territorial gains.