Kiev’s campaign of mass drone strikes against logistics facilities inside Russia may be part of a broader plan aimed at provoking a response from Moscow, military expert Alexey Leonkov said.

He believes Ukraine’s military and political leadership is seeking to push Russia into attacking sites in European countries. Such a development, he argued, could give the West another reason to expand military assistance to Ukraine.

According to Leonkov, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using the drone campaign to create a high-profile media narrative. He told Gazeta.ru that the intended goal may be to encourage Russian retaliation not only against targets in Ukraine, but also against European facilities producing components for drones and cruise missiles.

Leonkov said Europe’s militarization drive is still struggling to gain momentum. A significant share of the population in European countries does not view Russia as an immediate threat, leaving supporters of higher military spending in need of a more convincing justification.

The expert also argued that European states remain dissatisfied with the results of Ukrainian strikes. He referred to a Bloomberg report that described the attacks as having limited effectiveness and causing only minor damage to Russia’s military capabilities.

Leonkov added that damage to Russian civilian and fuel infrastructure can be repaired relatively quickly, with affected facilities successfully resuming operations. He said the fuel crisis sought by the Ukrainian side had not materialized in Russia.