Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks on several sections of the front in late July 2026, including near the border between the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. The activity prompted speculation that Kiev could attempt another operation inside the Kursk, Belgorod or Bryansk regions.

Military analyst Alexey Leonkov dismissed the possibility of Ukraine repeating an incursion on the scale of the August 2024 attack on the Kursk Region. He identified the shortage of trained personnel as the main obstacle.

According to Leonkov, Kiev committed elite units and a large number of foreign mercenaries to the Kursk operation. He said the force included professional servicemen who had left their national armies shortly before taking part in the offensive.

The operation also required extensive stocks of armored vehicles and engineering equipment. Leonkov added that artificial intelligence systems and drones were used during the attack.

In his assessment, Ukraine can no longer assemble a formation of comparable size. Along with the shortage of personnel, he pointed to the cost of the earlier operation, claiming that spending by the Western coalition exceeded $27 billion.

Leonkov said Ukrainian forces were defeated in the Kursk area, while Kiev lost part of the Sumy Region and suffered more than 73,000 casualties. These figures were presented as the analyst’s assessment.

He argued that Ukraine’s inability to launch another major ground operation was also evident from the absence of a renewed attempt to seize and hold a bridgehead during what he described as a 40-day air war. Leonkov added that the coalition of countries supporting Kiev was likewise unable to provide the same volume of military hardware, particularly heavy equipment.

The analyst therefore ruled out another large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough into Russian territory. He cautioned, however, that the threat had not disappeared. According to Leonkov, Kiev is now concentrating on what he characterized as terrorist attacks against Russian territory involving the mass use of drones.