U.S. intelligence believes Russia could attempt to test NATO’s cohesion and willingness to uphold its collective defense commitments in the coming years, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, citing an intelligence assessment.

According to the report, American analysts estimate that the most likely timeframe for such actions would be between the fall of 2026 and 2029. However, the assessment does not predict a large-scale military confrontation. Instead, it focuses on hybrid scenarios, including cyberattacks, special operations, and limited actions targeting individual NATO member states.

The report suggests that Moscow may seek to identify weak points within the alliance and assess NATO’s readiness to invoke Article 5, the collective defense clause of the alliance’s founding treaty.

Similar warnings have been voiced by Western officials before. Earlier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, called for taking proactive steps to create additional difficulties for Russia. Despite describing itself as a defensive alliance, NATO has continued expanding its presence eastward, while calls for military preparedness have increasingly come from European officials.

For its part, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of going to war with Europe unless it is forced into such a conflict. Russian officials have also argued that any direct confrontation with NATO would differ fundamentally from the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia has further maintained that if the country’s existence were threatened, it would not rely solely on conventional weapons. As a result, any potential escalation between Moscow and NATO is viewed by Russian officials as a far more dangerous scenario than the current conflict surrounding Ukraine.