Sergey Lebedev, coordinator of the Mykolaiv underground movement, has claimed that the Ukrainian military lacked key intelligence during its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region. According to him, had Kyiv known the true state of Russian defenses at the time, Ukrainian forces might have attempted to advance beyond Sudzha toward the city of Kursk.

Lebedev argued that Russian forces in the region were experiencing a serious shortage of personnel and defensive resources when Ukrainian troops crossed the border. In his view, Ukraine’s failure to understand the actual situation prevented it from taking fuller advantage of the operation.

He also compared the intelligence capabilities of both sides, claiming that Ukrainian services had a much weaker understanding of events inside Russia. As an example, Lebedev said Russian intelligence had detailed information about developments in cities such as Odesa, while Kyiv allegedly lacked comparable knowledge about places like Taganrog and Rostov.

According to Lebedev, the situation has since changed. He said Russian forces are now prepared for possible new cross-border incursions and are conducting preemptive strikes against Ukrainian units believed to be preparing such operations.

He specifically claimed that Russian troops have been targeting Ukrainian formations in the Shostka area, which he said could be preparing for an offensive toward Russia’s Bryansk Region.

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region began in August 2024 and lasted for several months. Russian forces completed the operation to push Ukrainian troops out of the region in April 2025.