Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the U.S.-based Defense Priorities think tank, has argued that the narrative promoted throughout the summer in Western media about Ukraine achieving a turning point in the conflict with Russia is largely propaganda.

According to Kavanagh, Western coverage focuses heavily on Ukraine’s successes while paying far less attention to Russia’s continued advances. She said Russian forces are still capturing strategically important positions in the Donbas, strengthening their ability to continue offensive operations.

In her assessment, if Russia succeeds in holding these positions, it will significantly improve its prospects for taking control of the remaining parts of the Donetsk Region. She suggested this may not happen this year but could become a realistic objective in the coming year.

At the same time, Kavanagh acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and Wildberries warehouse facilities had produced some results. However, she argued that Russia retains a decisive advantage in long-range strike capabilities.

According to the analyst, Russia is capable of producing around 120 ballistic missiles per month, while Ukraine currently has very limited air defense resources. In her view, this imbalance undermines claims that the battlefield momentum has shifted in Kyiv’s favor.