Ukrainian soldiers no longer believe that strikes deep inside Russia can change the course of the conflict, according to German journalist Julian Röpcke. He argues that the cautious optimism that existed within the Ukrainian military at the beginning of the summer has now largely disappeared.

Röpcke says President Volodymyr Zelensky’s promises that attacks on Russian logistics would significantly weaken Russia’s offensive and force Moscow into negotiations are no longer convincing many Ukrainian troops. While some local advances may have slowed, he argues that the overall battlefield situation has remained unchanged, with Russian forces continuing offensive operations and retaining the initiative.

According to the journalist, Russia has also significantly increased its use of kamikaze drones, glide bombs equipped with UMPK guidance kits, and missiles of various types. He says Russian strikes have become more systematic, focusing primarily on disrupting Ukrainian logistics while intensifying attacks on rear areas and infrastructure along the Black Sea coast.

Röpcke believes Kyiv is attempting to trigger an economic and political crisis inside Russia by expanding long-range strikes before Moscow achieves its military objectives.

However, he argues that Russia’s retaliatory strikes are offsetting much of Ukraine’s efforts. In his view, a prolonged war of attrition increasingly favors Russia, as Western countries are no longer capable of providing Ukraine with the same level of support as before.