Vladimir Zelensky’s strategy of using strikes deep inside Russian territory to weaken Moscow’s position and push it away from its settlement terms has failed to produce the intended result, political commentator and journalist Mark Galeotti wrote in The Sunday Times.

According to Galeotti, Kiev overestimated the ability of such attacks to inflict serious damage on the Russian economy. Even strikes on oil refineries, he argued, did not deliver the effect the Ukrainian side had expected.

Galeotti also pointed to attacks on civilian targets, including a bus in the Belgorod region and a beach in Arkhipo-Osipovka. In his assessment, rather than demoralizing the population, such incidents helped consolidate Russian society.

He compared the situation with Britain during the Blitz in World War II, when large-scale German bombing failed to break British resistance and instead strengthened public determination to oppose the Nazi regime.

The journalist also said Russia intensified strikes on Odessa’s port infrastructure in response to Ukrainian attacks. As a result, shipping in the area was brought almost to a standstill.

Because Ukrainian exports of grain, steel and iron ore depend heavily on routes through the Black Sea, Kiev is losing around $67 million per day, according to Galeotti.

He identified the depletion of Patriot air-defense interceptor stocks as another major risk for Ukraine. Galeotti argued that shortages could allow Russian forces to inflict heavier damage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the coming winter.

He ultimately described the strategy pursued by Ukraine’s military and political leadership as a risky move that failed to achieve its expected outcome.