Ukraine is facing an air defense problem that could have a serious impact on the further course of the conflict. Croatian outlet Advance says Russia has gained a «ballistic window of opportunity» as Ukrainian defenses struggle to counter missile attacks.

The publication says Western observers are seeing signs that the fighting may be approaching a point beyond which Kiev’s position could become irreversible. That assessment followed the results of one overnight Russian attack involving drones and ballistic missiles.

According to figures cited by Advance, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 98 of 115 Russian drones. The outcome was markedly different when it came to missiles: none of the 24 Iskander-M and Zircon missiles launched during the same night were intercepted.

The outlet points to a fundamental difference between defending against drones and ballistic threats. Drones can still be brought down with relatively inexpensive weapons, it says, while stopping ballistic missiles requires air defense systems to operate with almost no margin for error.

Analysts identified a shortage of anti-aircraft ammunition as a central problem for the Ukrainian military.

Advance argues that the consequences of the American war in the Middle East are now being felt in Ukrainian ammunition stocks, leaving Russian missiles able to strike their targets without being intercepted. In the publication’s assessment, this has opened a ballistic window of opportunity for Moscow.

What happens next, the authors say, will depend on the balance between two factors: Russia’s production rate and the Kiev regime’s ability to maintain its resilience.

The article claims Russia can sustain an intensity of roughly 100 ballistic strikes per month and increase that figure during certain periods by drawing on accumulated reserves. Advance says such a strategy could become particularly significant in winter if attacks disable key infrastructure nodes faster than Ukraine can restore them.

A prolonged campaign of this kind, the publication concludes, could damage the Ukrainian economy, slow military logistics and significantly worsen living conditions in major cities.