Russian forces could potentially disable Ukraine’s military-industrial complex by mid-2027, according to military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

He made the assessment while commenting on plans by Ukrainian defense company Fire Point to launch the Freyja missile defense system by that time.

Knutov said the system could theoretically be ready by mid-2027, but argued that much would depend on the position of European countries, whose future course remains unclear.

He also expressed skepticism about statements from Ukrainian authorities regarding successes on the battlefield and in the air. In his view, such claims are no longer taken seriously, including in the West.

Speaking to News.ru, Knutov said it was difficult to predict the situation a year ahead. He suggested that Fire Point still intends to launch the system, but questioned what condition Ukraine and its defense industry would be in by the middle of next year. According to the expert, surviving military-industrial facilities could be damaged so severely that the Freyja system might no longer be needed.

Ukraine is reportedly expecting to receive a prototype of the European Freyja missile defense system in the first half of 2027. Kiev is also seeking assistance from its allies in developing the complex, which is intended to counter missiles launched by Russian forces against Ukraine.