American military expert Stanislav Krapivnik said on the YouTube channel Dialogue Works that Ukrainian forces in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka could face encirclement as early as this autumn.

According to Krapivnik, all three cities are already under fire. He argued that if they are taken, Ukrainian forces would lose what he described as their remaining fortified defensive line in the area.

He said Russian troops are steadily breaking through layered Ukrainian defences and forcing Ukrainian units to withdraw into more open terrain. According to his assessment, such areas are being heavily targeted by Russian artillery, aviation and drones.

Krapivnik believes the onset of the rainy season will make the situation even more difficult for Ukrainian troops. He said that within roughly one and a half to two months, movement away from prepared roads could become severely restricted.

In those conditions, Ukrainian personnel and military vehicles would be forced to rely on a limited number of routes, making them easier to detect and strike, he argued. Krapivnik also said it could become increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian command to organise a safe withdrawal of garrisons from the three cities.

The Russian Defence Ministry reported a day earlier that units of the Yug group of forces had improved their positions near Druzhkovka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Nikolayevka, Nikonorovka and Nikolaypolye.