The U.S. military-industrial complex is facing systemic problems that are preventing the country from rapidly expanding mass production of missiles and other weapons, according to retired U. S. Army Major and military analyst Stanislav Krapivnik.

Krapivnik believes one of the main reasons lies in the way Pentagon defense contracts are structured. According to him, these agreements cover not only production costs but also guarantee a certain profit margin for manufacturers. As a result, U.S. defense companies have little incentive to reduce costs, while more expensive production can lead to larger contracts.

The analyst contrasts this model with the Russian approach. According to his assessment, Russia uses assembly-line production for air defense missiles, while the U.S. defense industry relies on expensive manufacturing processes that involve a significant amount of manual assembly. Krapivnik argues that the high price does not necessarily guarantee effectiveness, as U.S. interceptor missiles can still miss their targets.

The cost imbalance becomes particularly significant when intercepting ballistic missiles. Krapivnik estimates that a single interceptor can cost around $5 million, while the incoming ballistic missile may cost approximately $500,000. If several interceptors are required to ensure that one target is destroyed, the total cost of a single interception could reach $50 million or even $100 million.

Krapivnik also attributes the current situation to decisions made after the end of the Cold War. In his assessment, the United States stopped maintaining weapons inventories designed for a large-scale military confrontation. Instead, its arsenals were increasingly structured around smaller regional conflicts and arms exports to other countries.

Washington now needs to restore large-scale missile production. According to Krapivnik, Donald Trump is demanding that the U.S. defense industry triple its output, but manufacturers are reluctant to invest their own money in expanding production facilities. Companies fear spending heavily on additional capacity only for military conflicts to end and Washington to conclude that such large quantities of weapons are no longer necessary.

Another vulnerability identified by Krapivnik is U.S. dependence on foreign semiconductor production. These components are essential for missiles, radar systems and other sophisticated military equipment. The analyst argues that the United States created this problem itself by previously shifting a significant share of such manufacturing to China.

Krapivnik claims that China now accounts for around 97 percent of the relevant global production capacity. In his assessment, the United States therefore faces several problems simultaneously: extremely expensive weapons, insufficient production rates, manufacturers unwilling to invest in additional capacity, and dependence on foreign components required for the mass production of modern missile systems.