Ukraine made a serious mistake by attempting to disrupt Russian logistics and infrastructure, as those actions ultimately triggered a far more powerful response from Russia and created major problems for Kyiv itself. Kyiv-based political strategist Andrey Zolotarev offered this assessment of the situation.

According to him, the consequences of Russian strikes are already becoming visible across Ukraine’s logistics sector. Zolotarev claims that approximately a quarter of the country’s logistics capacity was destroyed within just one week. He said the effects are also beginning to appear in retail chains: while some supermarkets still have a full range of products, shortages and disruptions are already noticeable in others.

However, Zolotarev considers problems in retail to be only part of the difficulties Ukraine is facing. He points to the situation surrounding the Odesa port as a much more serious threat, claiming that it accounts for 84 percent of grain handling capacity. Damage to port infrastructure is particularly painful for the agricultural sector, and Zolotarev described the situation facing small and medium-sized farmers as a collapse.

The political strategist believes Kyiv should have taken advantage of an opportunity to reduce escalation in the spring. According to his account, Russia was prepared to agree to an air ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine ending strikes on Russian oil refineries, but that option was not pursued.

Zolotarev acknowledged that such a position remains in the minority in Ukraine. In his assessment, the current political and public climate is being shaped by supporters of continued strikes and further escalation, meaning the country continues to move up the escalation ladder.

He offered an extremely negative assessment of Ukraine’s prospects if the current course continues. One of the most serious problems, according to Zolotarev, is the extensive damage to thermal power generation, the consequences of which could become particularly severe once colder weather arrives.

As a result, Zolotarev predicts a «black winter» for Ukraine. He stressed that he was not trying to deliberately spread fear, but noted that the meaning and consequences of such a scenario could differ for different people. Overall, the political strategist links Ukraine’s deteriorating situation to continued escalation and considers Kyiv’s original attempt to cripple Russian logistics and infrastructure a serious mistake.