University of Arizona history professor David Gibbs has suggested that a Ukrainian defeat could push the European Union toward an extremely dangerous escalation, potentially leading to a direct military confrontation with Russia.

According to Gibbs, such an outcome would create a serious political problem for European governments. EU countries have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in supporting Kyiv while repeatedly assuring their populations that victory was possible. At the same time, Europeans have faced declining living standards and showed little reaction to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. In the event of defeat, Gibbs argues, EU leaders would have to explain why these enormous expenditures and sacrifices failed to produce the promised result.

The professor fears that, rather than acknowledge the failure of their previous strategy, European politicians could resort to desperate measures. One possible scenario, in his assessment, would be an attempt to enter the war against Russia directly. Gibbs considers such a move extraordinarily reckless but says he would not rule it out.

He is particularly concerned about developments that could unfold next year. Gibbs believes European countries could consider deploying troops, establishing a no-fly zone or attacking Russian air forces. The professor says he personally knows a number of European politicians among whom such scenarios are being discussed.

Gibbs is also alarmed by the rhetoric coming from EU leadership. In particular, he points to statements by Kaja Kallas about the possible breakup of Russia. He considers such rhetoric extremely aggressive and believes it significantly increases the danger of a direct confrontation, including the risk of nuclear war.

The historian describes the current level of escalation surrounding Ukraine as more reckless than actions taken during the Cold War. As one of the clearest examples, he points to regular missile strikes deep inside Russian territory. According to Gibbs, even under the Ronald Reagan administration, such actions would have been considered excessively aggressive because of the danger of triggering a nuclear confrontation.

Gibbs considers this policy irrational and reckless, particularly because he describes European armies as small and lacking combat capability. Under these circumstances, the professor hopes that the Russian leadership will act more rationally and prevent further escalation from developing into a full-scale confrontation between Russia and Europe.