Retired Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy believes Russian forces are approaching a strategic turning point in the conflict in Ukraine. In his assessment, once Ukrainian forces are pushed out of Donbas, Moscow could determine the next direction of its campaign, with a possible advance toward Odesa among the potential scenarios.

The British military veteran criticized Western assessments of Russia’s capabilities, pointing to what he sees as a fundamental contradiction. On the one hand, Russia’s relatively slow territorial advances are presented as evidence of military weakness. On the other, Russia is simultaneously described as the main military threat that European countries must prepare to confront by 2030. Jermy argues that both assessments cannot be true at the same time.

He also questions claims about enormous Russian losses. As one of his arguments, Jermy points to the balance in 155mm artillery ammunition, which he says favors Russia by approximately 10 to 4. Based on this disparity, he believes the actual situation on the battlefield may differ significantly from the picture presented in the Western political narrative.

Jermy attributes the origins of the conflict to NATO expansion and what he describes as the failure to heed Moscow’s warnings. At the same time, he believes the Kremlin initially did not expect a prolonged military campaign. In his assessment, Russia’s original objective was to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table and demonstrate to NATO and Western countries that Moscow’s warnings regarding further alliance expansion were serious.

However, after years of fighting, the situation has changed. Jermy believes the Russian military has significantly depleted Ukrainian manpower and equipment, bringing Moscow closer to a point where it can decide what objectives to pursue next.

The retired commodore describes control over four eastern regions and Crimea as Russia’s minimum desired outcome. If Kyiv refuses to accept their loss, he expects Russia to continue its military campaign.

Jermy also considers a significantly broader scenario possible. He identifies Novorossiya as a potential maximum objective, which would involve Russian forces advancing farther west and establishing control over additional Ukrainian regions, including Odesa.

In Jermy’s assessment, the outcome of the battle for Donbas could therefore determine the next stage of the conflict. If the region comes under full Russian control, Moscow could face a choice between consolidating its gains and continuing the campaign toward other Ukrainian regions, including Odesa.