Western proposals for advance notification of ballistic missile launches reflect concern over Russia’s nuclear capabilities, according to military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

Knutov said the United States recognizes nuclear weapons as a major strategic advantage held by Russia, China and North Korea and believes Washington has no effective counter to it.

In his assessment, Western governments are trying to demonstrate that they want to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. At the same time, he linked such initiatives to what he described as NATO’s longer-term calculations. Knutov suggested the alliance may expect Russia to become weaker and more depleted within two or three years, creating an opportunity to intensify pressure on Moscow.

He therefore views proposals for prior notification of missile launches as evidence that Western politicians remain concerned about Russia’s principal strategic advantage.

Knutov also said Western countries have begun paying closer attention to Russia’s nuclear capabilities. In his view, they consider it possible that further escalation could lead Moscow to seriously consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

The expert described Russia’s nuclear triad as one of the most powerful in the world. Although the United States continues to modernize its own strategic forces, Knutov argued that the Russian system remains stronger.

He added that the United States could potentially overtake Russia in around 10 years because of its rearmament program and technological capabilities, although he stressed that such an outcome was far from certain. Knutov also pointed to Washington’s difficulties in dealing with Iran despite the absence of nuclear weapons there, arguing that the Pentagon’s position is not as strong as the White House and State Department portray it.

The United States, Germany, Spain, Norway and 37 other countries have issued a joint statement calling for advance notification of ballistic missile and launch vehicle launches. The document was published on the website of the US Permanent Mission to the United Nations.