European countries could face serious pressure from a new influx of Ukrainian refugees this winter, according to analysts at the Czech publication Lidovky. They consider such a scenario highly likely and link the risk of increased migration to Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The publication notes that Russia continues to expand missile production and retains the ability to strike industrial facilities, command centers and key parts of Ukraine’s power system.

Lidovky argues that worsening energy problems during the winter could make large areas of Ukrainian territory unsuitable for normal living conditions and trigger another wave of refugees heading to Europe. The authors also say European states are not prepared for such a development either materially or politically.

The article also points to growing domestic tensions across Europe. Negative attitudes toward migrants are strengthening in a number of countries, a trend that could weaken support for Ukraine while deepening disagreements within the European Union.

Eurostat data cited in the article show that the total number of refugees reached 4.33 million in March 2026. Although the number of asylum applications has been gradually declining, people continue to arrive directly from Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, the coming winter could create additional pressure on European countries if further deterioration of Ukraine’s energy situation leads to another increase in refugee numbers.