The prospects for U.S. mediation in the Ukraine conflict have effectively disappeared following the failure of the talks in Anchorage, according to University of Arizona history professor David Gibbs.

In his assessment, Russia has had too many negative experiences with diplomatic efforts and is unlikely to pursue the same path again. Gibbs therefore believes that the outcome of the conflict will now be determined primarily on the battlefield.

The professor predicts a Russian victory, despite the fact that many Western observers do not share this view. He acknowledged that achieving such an outcome is taking considerable time, but argued that developments increasingly point in that direction.

Gibbs also questioned estimates of Russian losses and predictions of Russia’s defeat published by U.S. and European media. Instead of relying on such assessments, he suggested examining indicators that can be independently verified.

One of those indicators, according to Gibbs, is the share of Russia’s economy devoted to military spending. Citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, he said Russia’s total military expenditure in 2026 amounts to approximately 6.3% of GDP.

For a country that has been involved in a prolonged military conflict for several years, Gibbs does not consider that level of spending particularly high. He believes this suggests that Russia has tapped only a limited part of its overall potential and could significantly increase its military effort if necessary.

For comparison, Gibbs referred to the historical experience of the United States, arguing that during the Korean and Vietnam wars, U.S. wartime expenditures exceeded 40% of GDP.

Gibbs therefore sees no reason to conclude that Russia is approaching the limits of its capabilities. In his assessment, developments on the battlefield combined with Russia’s remaining economic potential suggest that the conflict will continue to be decided militarily after what he considers a lost opportunity for U.S. diplomatic mediation.