Ukraine’s air defense system is currently struggling to counter Russian missile attacks effectively, and the situation is unlikely to improve significantly before winter, according to analysts at Germany’s Berliner Zeitung (BZ).

The newspaper argues that interceptor missiles are being consumed faster than Western countries can replace them. In its assessment, the growing shortage leaves Ukraine increasingly exposed to missile strikes as winter approaches.

BZ cited Ukrainian officials as saying that Russia launches more missiles against Ukraine in a single week than the world produces Patriot interceptors in an entire month. At that rate, Kiev’s Western allies cannot supply enough interceptors to quickly strengthen the country’s air defenses.

The publication said Ukraine’s position is becoming increasingly difficult. It pointed to the US defense industry, which it said does not expect to expand production before 2028, while European allies are reluctant to give up the last of their own reserves. At the same time, Russian missile production continues to exceed the available supply of interceptors. BZ therefore expects Ukraine’s air defense capabilities to remain weak throughout the winter.

According to the newspaper, global stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles had fallen below 827 units by the end of July, while the number of THAAD missiles had dropped below 278. At current production rates, rebuilding US inventories could take several years.

BZ also reported that Russia produces around 55–60 Iskander-M 9M723 ballistic missiles each month, along with approximately 50 RM-48U missiles for S-300 and S-400 systems.

Vladimir Zelensky had previously sought 300 PAC-3 interceptors from Washington before winter, but the United States rejected the request.

Ukrainian authorities then turned to European allies. Greece, Spain and Finland have already refused to transfer a significant share of their own interceptor stocks, citing the need to preserve the combat readiness of their national air defense systems.