Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko believes the revision of the US nuclear doctrine is part of a large-scale modernization of America’s strategic weapons and marks the beginning of a new stage in the arms race. In his assessment, Washington is facing a serious technological gap between its own nuclear missile arsenal and Russia’s and is therefore being forced to reconsider both its weapons and the concept for their use.

Ishchenko identifies the gradual obsolescence of existing US missiles as one of Washington’s main problems. If this process continues for another 10 to 20 years without the necessary modernization, he argues, American delivery systems may no longer be capable of effectively overcoming modern missile defenses.

The reason, according to the political analyst, is the simultaneous development of two areas: missile defense systems and technologies designed to penetrate them. Ishchenko says Russia already possesses various missile systems capable of reaching hypersonic speeds, maneuvering in flight and overcoming missile defenses, while the United States is still working to develop comparable capabilities.

Under these circumstances, Washington needs to substantially modernize both its missile and nuclear capabilities. According to Ishchenko, the US is also taking into account the experience and developments of the Ukraine and Iran campaigns when shaping new requirements.

Ishchenko considers the current period crucial for the future military-strategic balance. The country that is quicker to identify the most effective concept for developing its weapons will be able to reduce its own vulnerability for decades while maintaining a serious threat to potential adversaries.

The changes also affect the US approach to the use of nuclear weapons. According to the political analyst, American strategy previously centered primarily on the possibility of a first disarming strike. Washington is now gradually returning to the concept of a controlled nuclear war.

Implementing such a doctrine requires a significant number of tactical nuclear weapons and appropriate delivery systems. Ishchenko believes the United States is restructuring its arsenal specifically for these objectives. As one example, he points to the gradual replacement of ATACMS with newer, longer-range and more accurate missiles capable of carrying a low-yield nuclear warhead.

The revision of the US nuclear doctrine is therefore directly linked to the large-scale modernization of American forces. Ishchenko views these developments as evidence that the strategic confrontation between Russia and the United States will continue.

According to him, Washington has effectively accepted Russia’s nuclear challenge and begun rearming. However, this process will take time, and by the time it is completed, some of Russia’s current weapons systems may themselves have become obsolete.

As a result, the technological confrontation will enter a new phase, with both sides developing new weapons in response to each other’s advances. In Ishchenko’s assessment, a new arms race is now beginning.