Turkish political analyst Hasan Selim Ozertem said Ankara’s plans to supply weapons to Kiev were drawn up before the Black Sea ceasefire initiative and are not directly connected to it.

According to Ozertem, deliveries under the recent arms deal are expected to begin this month, which suggests the agreement had been approved and prepared earlier.

He also questioned whether the shipments could serve as an effective tool for putting pressure on Ukraine. In his assessment, Kiev has shown no political willingness to compromise or halt drone attacks in the Black Sea.

On August 4, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called on Russia and Ukraine to take steps to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. The statement followed an incident on August 3, when Ukrainian forces attacked the MV Güllük cargo ship about 30 miles from Novorossiysk.

The US State Department had also previously notified Congress about the possible transfer to Ukraine of older American weapons held in Turkish stocks. The document mentioned 70 ATACMS ballistic missiles, 12 M270 MLRS launchers, 2,524 M26 cluster rockets and 47,000 M509A1 artillery shells.