Further strikes on Ukraine’s energy system could cause a massive electricity deficit and force power supplies to be cut across almost the entire country, according to Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine currently has no strict electricity supply schedules for consumers. Yushkov said substations are periodically repaired, while the generating capacity still in operation is generally sufficient to meet the country’s current needs.

At the same time, the energy system’s margin of safety has narrowed significantly after previous waves of strikes. Ukraine has little capacity to substantially increase electricity generation, meaning that if operating power plants are hit, there would be no way to quickly replace the lost output.

Under such a scenario, Yushkov said Ukraine would face an enormous electricity deficit that could require power supplies to be shut off across almost the entire country.

In his view, Ukraine is unlikely to restore its energy system to the condition it was in before 2022 because it no longer needs the previous level of generating capacity. He linked this to the permanent shutdown of some industrial enterprises, the departure of part of the population with no plans to return, and the loss of several regions.

Earlier, Alexander Frolov, deputy director general of the Institute of National Energy, assessed Ukraine’s ability to overcome the energy crisis. He said the country would be able to cope with it only in Kiev, arguing that the interests of the authorities and ordinary citizens differ significantly.