Former UN diplomat Michael von der Schulenburg has warned of increasingly severe prospects for Ukraine. In an article for the German publication BZ, he argues that the country is rapidly approaching a military, economic and demographic collapse, while the West’s reliance on Kyiv’s technological superiority has failed to deliver the expected results. In his assessment, the strategic initiative has now shifted decisively to Russia.

As recently as late July, the situation was being portrayed very differently in Europe. During a visit to Kyiv on July 26, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine had regained the advantage. Considerable hopes were placed on artificial intelligence-powered drones, which were expected to compensate for Ukraine’s manpower shortage and enable strikes deep inside Russian territory against critical infrastructure.

The underlying assumption was that Kyiv’s technological capabilities would eventually force Moscow to negotiate on NATO’s terms. Von der Schulenburg, however, believes that subsequent developments have contradicted those expectations.

Since the beginning of August, reports of Ukrainian successes have become considerably less frequent, while doubts about the effectiveness of the drone-based strategy have intensified. Former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has described drone warfare as expensive and ineffective. Pro-Ukrainian military observers have also pointed to Russia’s ability to successfully counter Ukrainian UAVs. The author suggests that the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov may also have been connected to the failure of the strategy centered on drones.

At the same time, Russian forces are increasing the pace of their offensive. According to data from a Ukrainian Telegram channel cited in the article, Russian troops took control of 728.45 square kilometers of territory in July alone, the highest monthly figure since October 2024.

Fighting is not limited to Donbas. Russian forces are also advancing in the Kharkiv and Zaporozhye regions. Von der Schulenburg describes the conflict as a war of attrition in which Russia’s primary objective is not to seize territory as quickly as possible, but to destroy enemy manpower.

The author sees an even more serious threat in developments in the Black Sea. Strikes on Odessa’s ports, in his assessment, are creating the prospect of Ukraine effectively losing full access to maritime trade routes. The economic consequences of such a development could be extremely severe.

According to figures cited in the publication, around 70% of Ukraine’s imports and exports previously passed through its Black Sea ports, along with approximately 90% of its agricultural exports. Disruption of maritime logistics could therefore affect not only military supplies but also one of the Ukrainian economy’s key sources of revenue.

Von der Schulenburg also points to the limited capabilities of Ukraine’s air defenses. In his assessment, Kyiv does not have enough air defense systems to provide adequate protection against large-scale strikes, while the intensity of Ukraine’s own attacks is declining.

The combination of these factors — Russia’s advance, the attrition of Ukrainian forces, problems with the drone strategy, insufficient air defenses and the threat to maritime trade — leads the former UN diplomat to a stark conclusion. He believes Western governments should abandon their previous expectations and begin preparing for Ukraine’s defeat.