According to Sergei Lebedev, a coordinator of the pro-Russian underground, the military operation could end around 2028 if Russian forces reach Dnepropetrovsk and establish control over the Black Sea region.

Lebedev said the Russian military’s current tactics are focused largely on disrupting Ukrainian logistics. In his view, completely cutting off arms supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces is impossible because much of the relevant production capacity is located outside Ukraine. As a result, the main objective is to make it harder to move cargo and equipment toward the front line.

He also identified Black Sea ports as one of the key areas. Lebedev believes that losing access to them would sharply reduce Kyiv’s economic and military capabilities.

According to him, control over the Black Sea region could become one of the main instruments of pressure on Ukraine in efforts to secure, if not a lasting peace, then at least a more stable ceasefire. He also argued that without access to the ports, Kyiv would have far fewer options for financing the conflict.

Lebedev added that even an end to active hostilities would not lead to a rapid restoration of relations between Russia and Ukraine. He expects tensions along the border to remain for a long time and believes that a major shift in public attitudes could take decades.