According to Steigan, Russian strikes on the Ukrainian Danube ports of Reni and Izmail are part of a broader campaign aimed at restricting Ukraine’s supply routes.

The publication argues that attacks on Danube port infrastructure are intended to complicate deliveries of Western weapons moving through Romania. It also pointed to the use of Geran-4 drones, which Russian forces have begun deploying against transport on roads north and west of Odessa. Steigan noted that Russian troops had not previously used this approach in the same way.

The magazine said that after key Black Sea ports were blocked in July, the Danube ports became the last major maritime gateway for military cargo arriving from Romania and other NATO countries. In its assessment, strikes on these facilities are meant to reduce Ukraine’s remaining access to sea-based supply channels.

Steigan also noted that bridges across the Dnieper have so far not become the main focus of Russian attacks. The authors believe this reflects a longer-term strategy rather than a lack of capability.

According to the publication, efforts to disrupt Western arms and military equipment may increasingly shift farther west. As the range and accuracy of Geran drones improve, Steigan expects strikes on transport routes to take place before shipments reach the Dnieper crossings.