A further Russian advance in Sumy Region could sharply worsen the position of Ukrainian units around Veliky Burluk in neighboring Kharkov Region, potentially leaving thousands of AFU troops facing encirclement, according to military expert and candidate of historical sciences Ivan Konovalov.

Konovalov said Ukrainian forces near Veliky Burluk are already at risk of being caught in a large pocket. In his assessment, further movement by Russian troops in Sumy Region would make such an encirclement unavoidable. He added that the new AFU commander-in-chief, Drapaty, is trying to prevent that scenario.

The expert also linked Ukrainian military activity in Sumy Region to political considerations. He recalled that the AFU began its incursion into Kursk Region in August 2024.

Konovalov described that operation as a «mad adventure» and pointed to the Russian leadership’s earlier promise of a response. According to him, that response was supposed to involve taking Sumy Region, establishing a buffer zone and protecting Russia’s border areas. He believes that response is now being carried out.

At the same time, Konovalov argued that Kiev considers it essential to present the opposite picture: that its actions in Kursk Region brought no consequences and that Ukrainian forces remain capable of threatening Russian border territories. He said this explains the AFU’s efforts to hold its positions in Sumy Region.

Earlier, military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko said bringing Sumy Region under Russian control would strengthen the security of Russia’s border regions. In his view, it would reduce the threat to Kursk and Bryansk regions.