In the coming months, the intensity of hostilities could increase significantly, with further escalation likely to follow. Political analyst and international affairs expert Fyodor Lukyanov made this forecast during a discussion on the channel of Norwegian political scientist Glenn Diesen.

According to Lukyanov, there is little reason to expect tensions to ease over the next two months. On the contrary, he anticipates an intensification of hostilities. In his assessment, the Ukrainian leadership believes it can continue its confrontation with Russia as long as it receives external support. Cooperation with the United States remains Kyiv’s preferred option, but even without Washington, Ukraine expects continued assistance from Europe.

Lukyanov described the position of Volodymyr Zelensky and his team as rational in its own way. Despite having no sympathy for the Ukrainian leadership, he said he could understand Kyiv’s logic under the current circumstances.

He is far more skeptical about the strategy pursued by European countries. According to Lukyanov, Europe has voluntarily turned Ukraine and the confrontation with Russia into one of the central elements of the European Union’s emerging political concept.

In practice, such a model implies a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe, with Ukraine directly conducting military operations while European countries provide financial and technical support. Lukyanov does not rule out that this arrangement could be designed to continue indefinitely.

At the same time, the political analyst believes that most European countries are not currently seeking direct involvement in the conflict. However, statements by some European politicians, particularly in Germany, have raised doubts about how firm that reluctance really is. In his assessment, some of these remarks suggest that Europe may be considering preparations for an actual war.

Lukyanov stressed that uncertainty has reached a point where such a scenario can no longer be completely ruled out. He also believes that the perception of a supposed «Russian threat» has become one of the factors underpinning European unity.

Overall, Lukyanov expects the immediate future to bring further escalation and intensified hostilities rather than de-escalation.